![]() ![]() The home team is often the favorite in NFL and college football, but that is not always the case, with copyright and all rights reserved. The substantially larger potential on Cleveland tells you that it is the clear underdog. A $20 bet on Baltimore would therefore earn you a $5.48 profit if successful, whereas a $20 bet on Cleveland would earn you a $61 profit if successful. ![]() ![]() You would make a $305 profit if you bet $100 on Cleveland on the moneyline and the Browns went on to win the game. You would need to bet $365 to make a $100 profit by betting on Baltimore on the moneyline. If the sportsbook odds compilers think that Baltimore is a significantly stronger team, they might make Baltimore the -365 favorite, and Cleveland the +305 underdog. Let’s say that Cleveland is scheduled to take on Baltimore in an NFL game. They will then assign a set of moneyline odds to each team. The odds compilers at sports betting sites will weigh up the relative strengths and weaknesses of each team, factoring in injuries, fatigue, recent results, head-to-heads and so on. What is a Moneyline Bet?Ī moneyline bet is a straightforward wager on which team will win a particular game. You can use this tool in conjunction with our up-to-date MLB odds, College football odds, NHL odds, NFL odds, NBA odds or NCAA Basketball odds to ensure that you gain maximum betting value. This is the complete odds conversion table for the NFL.This page allows you to find out the fair moneyline odds you should receive based on the point spread a sportsbook is offering. The table below shows the expected wining percentage at each point spread for the favorite and underdog. Spreads Converted to Expected Win Percentage That’s just one of the reasons we love NFL teaser wagers so much. You’ll also notice that it’s better to do a two-team 6 point teaser on favorites of 6 or 7 points instead of doing a money line parlay. This certainly doesn’t mean you have to avoid betting moneylines in the NFL, but check these charts to make sure you are maximizing the value of those wagers. If you consider converting the point spreads into expected moneylines on any given game you might find a couple more winners.Īs with everything in gambling, the house almost always has the edge. But, hopefully this will give you another tool to use against the sportsbooks. For those games we used estimated win percentages to better represent those numbers. *Please note that some higher lines did not have enough games to qualify as significant data. So, I’ve broken the data into four groups: home favorites, road favorites, home underdogs and road underdogs. There are obviously significant differences between certain situations. If the actual moneyline comes in lower than the expected moneyline then history says you are not getting value on your wager.Īs you’ll see, it’s pretty rare to find instances where taking the money line is a valuable play. The expected moneyline for 2-point home underdogs is +119. The actual line you would get would be something close to +105. Say you see a home underdog of +2 and decide you might as well take the money line. The problem is a book would make you pay around -206 (actual moneyline) for a -3.5-point favorite. If you look at the chart we’ve converted that to a money line of -175 (expected moneyline). Why is this something you need to know? Home favorites of -3.5 win the game 63.61% of the time. The “actual moneyline” is what a typical sportsbook would set for each spread. We took the win percentages for all NFL games since 1980 at each line and converted them into a money line. What I’m interested in when looking at the weekly odds is whether certain moneyline bets are profitable. On the flip side, you could bet a 3-point underdog at +135 to win outright, meaning you would wager $100 to win $135. This means you would need to wager $164 to win $100 on that team. There is just an increase in the juice based on the percentage chances of a team winning outright.įor example, the money line on a 3-point home favorite in the NFL would have odds like -164 to win the game outright. You are essentially wagering on who you think will win the game. For those of you who aren’t familiar with betting the money line in the NFL it’s simple. ![]()
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